NEW COUNTRIES
MAXIMILIANO HERRERA HUMAN RIGHTS LINKS
Maximiliano Herrera's Human Rights Site
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Electoral Calendar
It is an electoral calendar that includes general, presidential, legislative,
gubernatorial, regional, municipal, local council elections, referenda and party
conventions dates. Updated weekly. |
Electoral Democracies
It ranks all the independent countries in three categories: Electoral Democracy, Pseudo
Democracy and Dictatorship according to their electoral system. It also includes a list of
the countries without elections. |
Freedom in the World
It ranks all the independent countries according to their political freedoms and civil
rights.It also includes the website Freedom in
the Territories which shows the same ranking for the related territories and
non-independent regions. |
World Rank
It contains a list of all independent countries in the world ranked according to
their HDI (Human Development Index) or living standard.
It means incomes, political situation, health system, social situation,etc....The site
also includes a link to World Rank in the Territories
which includes the same statistics of living standard in the related non-independent
territories. |
A World in Trouble
This site shows the perception of the risk of a coup or a new conflict for every
independent country. This perception is ranked in: HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW, VERY LOW and NONE. |
Military Power Index
The Military power index shows the influence of the military forces in the societies of the independent countries. |
INTRODUCTION
New Countries shows the possibility of some territories being converted into independent countries.
It is made by two lists: the first shows a short term possibility to become independent
(up to 10 years) and a long term possibility (in the future).
The long term possibility includes the short term one: it means it is the combination of the st% and the lt%, so the lt% is always at least as high as the st%.
The second list shows the possibility of some independent countries to join or to be annexed into another country.
It shows a short term possibility (up to 10 years) and a long term possibility (in the future)also with
the short and long term possibilities.
There are five ways for a country to disappear in the future:
1-to join another country and make a union with it under the same conditions,in most of the cases with a new country name.
The most famous and last case of it was the reunification of Germany.
2-to be integrated (or annexed) into another country. In this case the country which is disappearing becomes a province, or region or autonomous territory
of the country which has integrated it.
In most of the cases, the country which integrated the other one keeps its original name.
The were many cases of it just after the second world war and the colonial era.
3-to be split into new independent countries.
4-to be conquered by another country. The last attempt was the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.
The last successful case was the invasion of Timor Leste (which has just recovered
its independence) by Indonesia.
5-to disappear for natural causes, like the raise of the level of the ocean or another natural disaster.
Since I guess (and hope) that international community will not allow anymore an invasion of a sovereign country,
i will not include in this document the possibility of the disappearance of a country caused by the invasion of another country.
In that list you will find the name of the country which can disappear, the name of the country which will be unified to or integrated into,
the short term possibilities, the long term possibilities and a letter which represents the case of a possible unification (U) or an integration (A for annexation).
Keep in mind this is my point of view. It is the result of my study of these territories.
The rank does NOT reflect in any way any preference or bias of the editor toward the status of the territory.
Last update 16/10/24:
ST%=Short Term Possibilities LT%=Long Term Possibilities
1-INDEPENDENCE LIST
TERRITORY CURRENT SOVEREIGNTY ST% LT%
PALESTINE \ ISRAEL 40 - 90
JUDEA ISRAEL 1 5
NORTHERN CYPRUS CYPRUS 30 - 45
KOSOVO ******* SERBIA/UNITED NATION 60 98
VOJVODINA SERBIA 1 15 -
PRESEVO VALLEY * SERBIA 1 10
SANDZAK ( SERBIA/MONTENEGRO 1 10
KOTOR BAY MONTENEGRO 1 2
ULCINJ MONTENEGRO 1 2
KRAJA * MONTENEGRO 1 2
SRPSKA REPUBLIC / BOSNIA AND HERZEGOV. 40 + 60 +
WESTERN BOSNIA BOSNIA AND HERZEGOV. 1 2
BRCKO BOSNIA AND HERZEGOV. 1 2
NORTHERN EPIRUS ALBANIA 1 5 -
ILLYRIA REPUBLIC NORTH MACEDONIA 10 25 +
ISTRIA CROATIA 1 10 -
RIJEKA CROATIA 1 5
PRIMORJE GORSKI CROATIA 1 5
DALMATIA CROATIA 1 5 -
KRAJINA CROATIA 1 10 -
CARINTHIA AUSTRIA 1 2
SZEKLER (EAST TR.)ROMANIA 1 15
RUSYN SLOVAKIA 1 2
SOUTHERN SLOVAKIA'SLOVAKIA 1 2
SUDETENLAND CZECH REPUBLIC 1 2
MORAVIA CZECH REPUBLIC 1 2
SILESIA CZECH REPUBLIC-POLAND 1 2
KASHUBIA POLAND 1 1
DANZIG POLAND 1 1
SAMOGITIA LITHUANIA 1 2
LIVONIA LATVIA 1 2
LATGALIA LATVIA 1 2
SAMILAND/LAPPLAND NOR.-SWED.-RUS.-FIN. 1 2
SVALBARD NORWAY 1 5
SCANIA SWEDEN 1 1
TORNEDALIA FINLAND/SWEDEN 1 1
ALAND @ FINLAND 1 10
FAROE ISLANDS DENMARK 20 + 45 +
GREENLAND DENMARK 30 + 50 +
BORNHOLM ISLAND DENMARK 1 2
BAVARIA GERMANY 1 2
EAST FRISIA GERMANY 1 2
FRANCONIA GERMANY 1 2
LUSATIA GERMANY 1 2
SCHWLESWIG HOLSTEIN GERMANY 1 2
HELGOLAND GERMANY 1 2
CHAGOS ISLANDS UNITED KINGDOM 10 + 40
SAINT HELENA UNITED KINGDOM 1 10
ANGUILLA UNITED KINGDOM 1 35
MONTSERRAT UNITED KINGDOM 1 25
BERMUDA UNITED KINGDOM 1 35
UK VIRGIN ISLANDS UNITED KINGDOM 1 30
CAYMAN ISLANDS UNITED KINGDOM 1 30
TURKS AND CAICOS**UNITED KINGDOM 5 40
ISLE OF MAN UNITED KINGDOM 1 30
CHANNEL ISLANDS UNITED KINGDOM 2 30
JERSEY UNITED KINGDOM 5 25
GUERNSEY UNITED KINGDOM 2 10
WALES UNITED KINGDOM 5 30
SCOTLAND UNITED KINGDOM 35 + 45
NORTHERN IRELAND )UNITED KINGDOM 20 40
YORKSHIRE UNITED KINGDOM 1 2
ORKNEY UNITED KINGDOM 1 5
SHETLAND UNITED KINGDOM 1 5
OUTER HEBRIDES UNITED KINGDOM 1 2
CORNWALL UNITED KINGDOM 1 5
SCILLY ISLANDS UNITED KINGDOM 1 2
WESSEX UNITED KINGDOM 1 2
GIBRALTAR *** UNITED KINGDOM 2 30
FALKLAND ISL.**** UNITED KINGDOM 1 15
SEALAND UNITED KINGDOM 1 1
ARUBA NETHERLANDS 5 35
CURACAO NETHERLANDS 5 35
SINT MAARTEN NETHERLANDS 5 30
SINT EUSTATIUS NETHERLANDS 2 20
BONAIRE NETHERLANDS 2 15
SABA NETHERLANDS 2 15
FRYSLAN NETHERLANDS 1 5
LIMBURG * NETHERLANDS 1 1
AMSTERDAM NETHERLANDS 1 1
GENEVA SWITZERLAND 1 1
JURA SWITZERLAND 1 1
TICINO SWITZERLAND 1 1
FLANDERS , BELGIUM 10 40
LUXEMBOURG REGION*BELGIUM 1 1
GERMAN BELGIUM * BELGIUM 1 1
MARTINIQUE FRANCE 2 40
GUADELOUPE FRANCE 2 40
SAINT BARTHELEMY ~FRANCE 2 25
SAINT MARTIN ~ FRANCE 2 25
FRENCH GUIANA FRANCE 2 40
NEW CALEDONIA FRANCE 20 - 55
FRENCH POLYNESIA FRANCE 15 50
MARQUESAS ISL. FRANCE 5 30
WALLIS AND FUTUNA FRANCE 10 50
ST PIERRE AND MIQ.FRANCE 1 20
REUNION FRANCE 2 30
MAYOTTE ***** FRANCE 2 - 30
BRITTANY FRANCE 1 5
CORSICA FRANCE 1 10
ALSACE FRANCE 1 5
SAVOY FRANCE 1 5
OCCITANIA FRANCE 1 2
LORRAINE FRANCE 1 2
BOURGOGNE FRANCE 1 2
ALPES MARITTIMES FRANCE 1 2
BASQUE COUNTRY SPAIN/FRANCE 5 40 -
NAVARRE ****** SPAIN 1 5
CATALONIA ] SPAIN 35 60 +
GALICIA SPAIN 1 10
CANARY ISLANDS SPAIN 1 10
ANDALUCIA SPAIN 1 5
VALENCIA $ SPAIN 1 5
ARAGON SPAIN 1 1
ASTURIAS SPAIN 1 1
CANTABRIA SPAIN 1 1
LEON SPAIN 1 1
EXTREMADURA SPAIN 1 2
MURCIA SPAIN 1 1
BALEARES $ SPAIN 1 5
OLIVENZA * SPAIN 1 1
AZORES PORTUGAL 1 5
MADEIRA PORTUGAL 1 10
ROMANDIE SWITZERLAND 1 1
PADANIA ITALY 1 2
SARDINIA ITALY 1 5
SICILY ITALY 1 5
AUSONIA ITALY 1 1
AOSTA VALLEY ITALY 1 5
SOUTH TYROL ITALY 1 5
LOMBARDIA ITALY 1 1
VENETO ITALY 1 5
TRIESTE ITALY 1 2
CAMPIONE _ ITALY 1 5
LIGURIA ITALY 1 1
GREEK MACEDONIA GREECE 1 5
CHAMERIA GREECE 1 1
CRETE GREECE 1 1
MOUNT ATHOS GREECE 1 1
TRANSNISTRIA # MOLDOVA 30 45 -
GAGAUZIA MOLDOVA 20 35
TARACLIA MOLDOVA 1 5
CRIMEA # UKRAINE/RUSSIA disp. 25 - 45 -
DONBAS # UKRAINE/RUSSIA disp. 50 + 60 +
CARPATH. RUTHENIA=UKRAINE 1 10
WESTERN UKRAINE . UKRAINE 1 10
BUKOVINA ` UKRAINE 1 10
BUDJAK UKRAINE 1 10
CHECHNYA RUSSIA 10 - 55
DAGESTAN RUSSIA 5 40
TATARSTAN RUSSIA 5 40 +
UDMURTIA RUSSIA 1 10
BASHKORTOSTAN RUSSIA 2 20 +
MARY EL RUSSIA 2 20
CHUVASHIA RUSSIA 1 20
MORDOVIA RUSSIA 1 20
INGUSHETIA RUSSIA 5 35 +
BALKARIA REP. RUSSIA 2 15
KABARDIN REP. RUSSIA 2 15
KARACHAI REP. RUSSIA 2 15
CHERKESSIA REP. RUSSIA 2 15
NORTHERN OSSETIA RUSSIA 2 20 +
ADYGEYA RUSSIA 1 15
NORTH CAUCUS RUSSIA 1 10
KALININGRAD RUSSIA 1 20
KALMIKYA REP. RUSSIA 1 10
KRASNODAR RUSSIA 1 10
INGRIA { RUSSIA 1 10
KARELIA { RUSSIA 1 10
KOMI RUSSIA 1 10
ROSTOV RUSSIA 1 10
TUVA REPUBLIC RUSSIA 1 20
ALTAI RUSSIA 1 5
BURYATIA RUSSIA 1 5
KHAKASSIA RUSSIA 1 5
EASTERN SIBERIA RUSSIA 2 20
YAKUTIA (SAKHA) RUSSIA 1 20
CHUKOTSKA RUSSIA 1 20
SAKHALIN RUSSIA 1 10
PRIMOSKI RUSSIA 1 10
KAMCHATKA RUSSIA 1 10
MAGADAN RUSSIA 1 10
ARTSAKH AZERBAIJAN 30 50
NAKHICHEVAN AZERBAIJAN 10 35
TALYSH-MUGHAN AZERBAIJAN 1 5
LEZGISTAN AZERBAIJAN/RUSSIA 1 2
ABKHAZIA # GEORGIA 35 + 65 +
SOUTH OSSETIA # GEORGIA 35 55 +
ADZHARIA GEORGIA 5 25
MINGRELIA GEORGIA 1 10
JAVAKHETI GEORGIA 1 10
BORCHALI * GEORGIA 1 1
SOUTH. AZERBAIJAN*IRAN 1 20
WEST AZERBAIJAN * IRAN 1 15
SOUTH TURKMENISTAN*IRAN 1 10
KURDISTAN * IRAN 1 5
KHUZESTAN IRAN 1 15
SISTAN-BALUCHISTAN IRAN 1 15
GORNO BADAKHSAN TAJIKISTAN 2 25
KARAKALPAKSTAN UZBEKISTAN 2 30
SOKH ****** UZBEKISTAN 2 15
HATAY TURKEY 1 5
MOUNT LEBANON LEBANON 1 15
KURDISTAN IRAQ/TURKEY/SYRIA/IRAN10 + 50 +
JABAL AD DURUZ SYRIA 1 5
ALAWITE STATE SYRIA 2 + 5 +
ROJAVA SYRIA 2 + 5 +
ARAMA SYRIA 2 + 5 +
SYRIAN TURKMEN SYRIA 2 + 5 +
ASSIRYA IRAQ/SYRIA 5 + 20 +
ISLAMIC STATE IRAQ/SYRIA 5 20
IRAQI KURDISTAN IRAQ 60 + 85 +
SHIIS STATE IRAQ 25 + 50 +
TURKMENELI * IRAQ 2 + 10
SALAHUDDIN IRAQ 2 + 10
SINJAR IRAQ 2 + 10 +
DIYALA IRAQ 2 + 5
HAWAR ISLANDS BAHRAIN 1 5
DUBAI UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 1 15
SHARJAH UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 1 25
MUSCAT OMAN 1 15
DHOFAR OMAN 1 15
SOUTH YEMEN YEMEN 45 + 60 +
SOCOTRA YEMEN 1 + 20
ZAYDI SHIA YEMEN 15 + 35 +
HADHRAMAUT YEMEN 5 + 10 +
OKINAWA-RYUKUS IS.JAPAN 1 10
HOKKAIDO JAPAN 1 2
CHEJU-DO SOUTH KOREA 1 2
TAMIL STATE SRI LANKA 2 - 20
HAZARAJAT AFGHANISTAN 2 15
KANDAHAR AFGHANISTAN 2 15
NANGAHAR AFGHANISTAN 1 10
SOUTH TURKESTAN AFGHANISTAN 1 15
HERAT AFGHANISTAN 1 15
BADAKHSHAN AFGHANISTAN 1 15
PASHTOONISTAN AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN 2 25
BALOCHISTAN PAKISTAN 5 - 30
SINDHUDESH PAKISTAN 5 - 25
BALAWARISTAN PAKISTAN 5 - 30
HUNZA-BROOSHAL PAKISTAN 5 - 25
WAZIRISTAN PAKISTAN 5 - 25
JINNAHPUR PAKISTAN 1 2
GILGIT-BALTISTAN PAKISTAN 1 5
KASHMIR INDIA/PAKISTAN 5 35
KARACHI PAKISTAN 1 2
ASSAM ^ INDIA 2 25
SIKKIM < INDIA 2 20 -
MEGHALAYA ^ INDIA 1 15
MANIPUR ^ INDIA 2 20
KAMTAPUR INDIA 1 10
PUNJAB (KHALISTAN)INDIA 2 10
MIZORAM INDIA 2 10
TAMIL NADU INDIA 2 10
TRIPURA ^ INDIA 2 - 10
ARUNACHAL PRADESH INDIA 1 10
WEST BENGAL ^ INDIA 1 10
KERALA INDIA 1 10
ANDAMAN-NICOBAR I.INDIA 1 20
LAKSHADWEEP ISL. INDIA 1 10
BODOLAND INDIA 1 5
GOA INDIA 1 5
GORKHALAND INDIA 1 5
SOUTH INDIA INDIA 1 5
NAGALAND ^ INDIA/MYANMAR 2 - 20 -
ZOGAM INDIA/BANGL./MYANMAR 1 5
BANGABHUMI BANGLADESH 2 20
CHAKMA(CHIT.HILLS)BANGLADESH 2 20
SUVADIVES MALDIVES 1 15
MAHADHESI (TERAI) NEPAL 5 + 20 +
MUSTANG NEPAL 1 5
TAIWAN > CHINA 2 50
TIBET CHINA 1 40
XINJIANG (UIGHUR) CHINA 1 40
INNER MONGOLIA CHINA 1 20
MANCHURIA CHINA 1 10
GUANGXI CHINA 1 10
YUNNAN CHINA 1 10
HONG KONG CHINA 1 20
MACAU CHINA 1 15
LADAKH CHINA/PAKISTAN 1 5
HMONG STATE LAOS/THAILAND/VIETNAM 1 5
SOUTH VIETNAM VIETNAM 1 2
KAMPUCHEA KROM VIETNAM 1 1
TAY NGUYEN (DEGAR)VIETNAM 1 2
KAYIN (KAREN)STATEMYANMAR 2 25
KAYAHLI MYANMAR 2 10
MON STATE MYANMAR 2 10
SHAN STATE MYANMAR 2 30 -
WA STATE MYANMAR 2 30
CHIN STATE MYANMAR 2 25
KACHIN STATE MYANMAR 5 30
RAKHINE (ARAKAN) MYANMAR 2 + 35 +
KOKANG MYANMAR 2 15
PANGWAUM MYANMAR 1 10
NAMPAN MYANMAR 1 10
KUKILAND MYANMAR 1 10
ZOGAM (ZOMI) MYANMAR 1 10
SOUTH MUSLIM THAI.THAILAND 1 15
ESSAN ? THAILAND 1 + 15 +
LANNA REPUBLIC ? THAILAND 1 + 10 +
SARAWAK MALAYSIA 1 25
SABAH MALAYSIA 1 25
LABUAN MALAYSIA 1 5
SULU SULTANATE PHILIPPINES/MALAYSIA 1 5
MINDANAO ; PHILIPPINES 10 35
CORDILLERA PHILIPPINES 1 15
LANAO PHILIPPINES 1 5
ACEH INDONESIA 5 - 40 -
WEST PAPUA INDONESIA 20 + 50
WEST TIMOR INDONESIA 2 25
RIAU INDONESIA 1 15
AMBON (SO.MALUKU) INDONESIA 2 25
EAST KALIMANTAN INDONESIA 2 20
NORTH SULAWESI INDONESIA 2 20
OECUSSE AMBENO € TIMOR LESTE 2 20
BOUGAINVILLE PAPUA NEW GUINEA 50 + 80 +
EAST NEW BRITAIN PAPUA NEW GUINEA 5 + 15 +
NEW IRELAND PAPUA NEW GUINEA 5 + 15 +
MILNE BAY PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2 + 15 +
HELA PAPUA NEW GUINEA 1 15
ENGA PAPUA NEW GUINEA 1 15
MALAITA SOLOMON ISLANDS 5 - 35
RENNELL & BELLONA SOLOMON ISLANDS 2 20
OTONG JAVA SOLOMON ISLANDS 2 25
ROTUMA ISLAND FIJI 1 25
POHNPEI MICRONESIA 2 25
YAP ISLANDS MICRONESIA 2 25 +
CHUUK MICRONESIA 40 - 55
E.SANTO (VEMERANA)VANUATU 2 25
MALAKULA VANUATU 2 20
TANNA (TAFEA) VANUATU 2 20
NA GRIAMEL VANUATU 1 10
BANABA KIRIBATI 2 20
PHOENIX ISLANDS KIRIBATI 2 20
EASTERN ISLANDS KIRIBATI 2 20
RALIK ISLANDS MARSHALL ISLANDS 1 15
CHRISTMAS ISLAND AUSTRALIA 1 10
NORFOLK ISLAND AUSTRALIA 1 15
COCOS ISLAND AUSTRALIA 1 5
TORRES STRAIT IS. AUSTRALIA 1 5
WESTERN AUSTRALIA AUSTRALIA 1 1
NIUE NEW ZEALAND 1 25
COOK ISLANDS NEW ZEALAND 5 40
TOKELAU NEW ZEALAND 5 - 40
CHATHAM ISLANDS NEW ZEALAND 1 2
SOUTH ISLAND NEW ZEALAND 1 2
QUEBEC CANADA 20 45
NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA 1 5
ALBERTA CANADA 1 5
WESTERN CANADA CANADA 1 5
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA 1 5
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA 1 2
CAPE BRETON ISL. CANADA 1 2
PUERTO RICO UNITED STATES 2 - 25 -
NORTHERN MARIANAS ! UNITED STATES 15 - 50
AMERICAN SAMOA | UNITED STATES 10 40
GUAM ! UNITED STATES 25 + 40 +
US VIRGIN ISLANDS UNITED STATES 1 25
TEXAS UNITED STATES 1 2
CALIFORNIA UNITED STATES 1 2
NEW MEXICO UNITED STATES 1 2
ARIZONA UNITED STATES 1 2
FLORIDA UNITED STATES 1 2
HAWAII UNITED STATES 1 5
ALASKA UNITED STATES 1 15
VERMONT UNITED STATES 1 1
MINNESOTA UNITED STATES 1 1
NEW ENGLAND UNITED STATES 1 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE UNITED STATES 1 1
SOUTH CAROLINA UNITED STATES 1 1
SOUTHERN STATES UNITED STATES 1 2
NEW YORK STATE UNITED STATES 1 1
SIOUX LAKOTA UNITED STATES 1 2
IROQUOIS (HAUDENOSAUNEE)U.STATES 1 2
OJIBWAY UNITED STATES 1 2
NAVAJO (NA-DENE) UNITED STATES 1 2
GULLAH/GEECHEE UNITED STATES 1 2
LONG ISLAND UNITED STATES 1 1
KEY WEST UNITED STATES 1 1
CASCADIA UNITED STATES 1 1
RIO GRANDE : UNITED STATES/MEXICO 1 2
NUEVO LEON MEXICO 1 5
CHIAPAS MEXICO 1 15
YUCATAN MEXICO 1 10
SOUTHERN STATES : MEXICO 1 5
BAJA CALIFORNIA : MEXICO 1 5
ATLANTIC REGIONS NICAGARUA 1 10
GUANACASTE COSTA RICA 1 5
KUNA PANAMA 1 2
ARTIBONITE HAITI 1 2
BARBUDA ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 1 5
GRENADINES ST VINCENT AND THE GR.1 10
NEVIS ST KITTS AND NEVIS 15 - 50
TOBAGO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 1 10
RAIZAL (SAN ANDRES) COLOMBIA 1 15
GUAJIRA [ COLOMBIA 1 5
ANTIOQUIA COLOMBIA 1 2
ZULIA VENEZUELA 1 2
TACHIRA VENEZUELA 1 2
SOUTHERN BRAZIL BRAZIL 1 15
SAO PAULO STATE BRAZIL 1 5
RIO GRANDE BRAZIL 1 2
NORTHEAST BRAZIL BRAZIL 1 2
PERNABUCO BRAZIL 1 2
GUAYAQUIL } ECUADOR 1 10
GUAYAS } ECUADOR 1 10
LORETO PERU 1 5
ANDINE REGIONS PERU 5 20
AREQUIPA PERU 1 5
WAMPIS PERU 1 2
LOS LLANOS BOLIVIA 10 - 30
SANTA CRUZ BOLIVIA 15 - 35
TARIJA BOLIVIA 10 - 20
BENI BOLIVIA 2 15
PANDO BOLIVIA 2 15
EASTER ISLAND CHILE 10 + 35 +
MAPUCHE NATION CHILE/ARGENTINA 1 2
PATAGONIA ARGENTINA 1 5
WESTERN SAHARA MOROCCO 20 - 50 -
RIF REPUBLIC MOROCCO 1 5
KABYLIA(BERBER) ALGERIA 1 10
CYRENAICA LIBYA 40 60 +
FEZZAN LIBYA 30 + 45 +
ABABDA EGYPT 1 2
CASAMANCE SENEGAL 5 - 30
ZANZIBAR TANZANIA 5 - 40
PEMBA TANZANIA 5 - 35
SOMALILAND SOMALIA 45 65
PUNTLAND SOMALIA 25 - 40 -
SOUTHWEST.SOMALIA SOMALIA 10 - 20 -
AWDALLAND SOMALIA 5 15
GALMUDUG SOMALIA 5 15
JUBALAND SOMALIA 5 15
OROMO STATE ETHIOPIA 1 20
TIGRAY STATE ETHIOPIA 1 20
GAMBELLA ETHIOPIA 5 20
OGADEN REGION ETHIOPIA 5 20
SIDAMA ETHIOPIA 10 + 30 +
NORTH EASTERN FR. KENYA 1 10
COAST PROVINCE KENYA 2 + 20 +
BLUE NILE & SUDAN 5 - 20
ABYEI & SUDAN 1 - 10 -
NUBA MOUNTAINS & SUDAN 1 10
SOUTHERN KORDOFAN&SUDAN 2 - 15
KASSALA SUDAN 2 15
BEJA SUDAN 1 10
DARFUR SUDAN 30 50
EASTERN SUDAN SUDAN 10 30
NUERLAND SOUTH SUDAN 5 20
LADO SUDAN/UGANDA 1 - 10 -
LOGONE REGION CENTRAL AFRICAN REP. 1 10
AZAWAD (TUAREG) MALI/NIGER 15 30 +
AGADEZ REGION NIGER 1 2
ANJOUAN (NZWANI) COMOROS 20 - 40
MOHELI (MWALI) COMOROS 10 30
ALDABRA ISLANDS SEYCHELLES 1 15
AMBAZONIA (SOUTH C.)CAMEROON 35 + 55 +
BAKASSI PENINSULA CAMEROON 5 25 +
BIAFRA NIGERIA 5 + 25
OGONI NIGERIA 2 25
AREWA REPUBLIC NIGERIA 5 25
NIGER DELTA NIGERIA 5 30 +
YORUBA (ODUDUWA) NIGERIA/BENIN 1 5
WEST TOGOLAND GHANA 5 25
DAGBON GHANA 2 20
NORTHERN REGIONS COTE D'IVOIRE 2 - 20
BUGANDA UGANDA 1 5
YIIRA(RUWENZURURU)UGANDA/CONGO KINSHASA 1 20 +
NORTHERN REGIONS CENTRAL AFRICAN REP. 5 20
SOUTH CONGO CONGO BRAZZAVILLE 1 10
LOANGO CONGO BRAZZAVILLE 1 10
KATANGA CONGO KINSHASA 5 + 25 +
KASSAI CONGO KINSHASA 1 10
BUNDU DIA KONGO CONGO KINSHASA 1 10
CENTRAL KONGO CONGO KINSHASA 1 2
REPUBLIC OF KIVU CONGO KINSHASA 1 2
REP.OF EQUATEUR CONGO KINSHASA 1 2
REP. OF BOYOMA CONGO KINSHASA 1 2
GREAT KASAI CONGO KINSHASA 1 2
LOMAMI CONGO KINSHASA 1 2
BATEKE (TIO) CONGO KINSHASA 1 2
BUKAVU CONGO KINSHASA 1 2
BAS CONGO CONGO KINSHASA 1 2
BATWA RWANDA 1 2
PRINCIPE SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE 1 10
BIOKO EQUATORIAL GUINEA 5 35
CABINDA ANGOLA 5 - 30 -
REP. OF NDONGO ANGOLA 1 2
UK. LUNDA TCHOKWE ANGOLA 1 2
REP. OF BENGUELA ANGOLA 1 2
CAPRIVI NAMIBIA 5 30
REHOBOTH BASTERS NAMIBIA 1 5
BAROTSELAND ZAMBIA 1 5
MATABELELAND (MTHWAKAZI) ZIMBABWE 2 10
ORANIA SOUTH AFRICA 1 10
WESTERN CAPE SOUTH AFRICA 1 10
XHOSALAND SOUTH AFRICA 1 5
KWAZULU/NATAL SOUTH AFRICA 1 5
VHAVENDA SOUTH AFRICA 1 2
ABA THEMBU SOUTH AFRICA 1 1
TRANSKEI SOUTH AFRICA 1 2
CISKEI SOUTH AFRICA 1 1
MATABELELAND SOUTH AFRICA 1 1
BOPHUTHATSWANA SOUTH AFRICA 1 1
GAZANKULU SOUTH AFRICA 1 1
KANGWANE SOUTH AFRICA 1 1
KWANDEBELE SOUTH AFRICA 1 1
QWAQWA SOUTH AFRICA 1 1
LEBOWA SOUTH AFRICA 1 1
THEMBULAND SOUTH AFRICA 1 5
AFRIKANERS SOUTH AFRICA 1 5
RODRIGUES ISLAND MAURITIUS 2 20
AGALEGA ISLAND MAURITIUS 2 20
TOLIARA MADAGASCAR 1 2
* Kraja (Montenegro) : The main aim is to join Albania
German Belgium (Belgium): The main aim is to join Germany
Luxembourg Region (Belgium): The main aim is to join Luxembourg
Limburg (Natherlands): The main aim is to join Belgium
Presevo Valley (Serbia): The main aim is to join Albania
Olivenza (Spain): The main aim is to join Portugal
Borchali (Georgia): The main aim is to join Azerbaijan
South and West Azerbaijan (Iran): Tha main aim is to join Azerbaijan
South Turkmenistan (Iran): The main aim is to join Turkmenistan
Kurdistan (Iran): The main aim is to join an independent Kurdistan
Turkemeli (Itaq): The main aim is to join Turkey
** A proposal for Turks and Caicos has also been becoming a canadian
oversea province.(it will probably remains a dream).
*** There is also a chance in the long term for Gibraltar to be
integrated into Spain.
**** There is also a chance in the long term for the Falkland to be
integrated into Argentina.
***** There is also the chance of an integration of Mayotte in the
Comoros (little one for now).
****** There is also the chance (considerable) for Sokh to be integrated into Kyrgyzstan
******* There is also the chance of a future merge between Kosovo and Albania
$ There is also a remote chance for Valencia and the Baleares Islands
to join Catalonia as a joint independent country, as for Navarra to
join the Basque Region to form a united independent country.
< There is also a proposal to integrate Sikkim and the southern
Bhutan to Nepal.
> Although Taiwan is a de facto independent country, recognized
by some countries and it is listed, even by the editor himself,
as an independent country, these statistics are meant to give
a rate of its chances
to be recognized by all the countries, including China, and
integrated into the United Nations.
| There is also a slim chance for American Samoa to be
integrated into independent Samoa (former Western Samoa).
! There is also a project of integration of Guam and the Northern
Marianas into an independent country "Marianas"
? There is also the chance for Lanna Republic (Northwestern Thailand) and Essan Republic (Northeastern
Thailand) to form a Northern Thailand together.
There is also a slim chance for Essan to join Laos instead.
\ There are chances of different solutions like two independent
countries: West Bank and Gaza or for Palestine (or West Bank only)
to be integrated into Jordan in a federation.
/ There is also a strong chance for the Sprska Republic to be
integrated into Serbia.
: Rio Grande project includes the states of Nuevo Leon, Coahuila and
Tamaulipas and under some projects, parts of Texas and New Mexico in
USA.Southern States includes Chiapas, Yucatan, Tabasco,
Campeche and Quintana Roo
; There is also a consistent chance for Mindanao , in case of independence, to
become independent without a part of it where Muslims are not
the majority.
^ Inside these indian states, there are also internal independence
movements like the ones of Karbi Anglong, Khasi, Achik, Meitei,
Reang, Bodo, Kuki, Kamatapur and Rabha.
_ There is also the chance for Campione to be integrated into
Switerland.
# Being those territories disputed, there are big chances for these territories to be formally integrated into
the Russian Federation (already controlled by it),
thus the chances of their independences are diminishing.
= There is also a chance for the Transcarpatia region to be integrated into Hungary.
` There is also a chance for Bukovina to be integrated into Romania.
. There is also a chance for the Western Ukraine (Volyn, Lviv , Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil and Rivne)
to be integrated into Poland.
@ There is also the chance of Aland Island to get integrated into
Sweden.
, Belgium is also listed amongst the countries with a chance to disappear. The difference in having a secession
of Flanders from Belgium or a split in two countries where the French speaking part (Wallonia) will
have a different name is mainly in the denomination of the latest. Therefore the country is listed in
both lists with the same chance of short and long term independence.
~ There is also the chance of Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy to
become independent together with Guadeloupe in a unique country.
" Marquesas Islands ma choose to stay with France if the rest of French Polynesia breaks away,
(good chance), or to be independent alone or within French Polynesia (in both cases
it is a smaller chance).
& There is also a chance for Southern Kordofan (low/medium chances), South Blue Nile (medium chances),
Nuba Mountains (medium/high chances) and for Abyei (high chances) to be integrated into
the future independent country of South Sudan.
[ There is also a slim chance for Guajira to be come part of Venezuela
] There is also a much smaller chance of a Great Catalunya which includes parts currently in France
( There is also a chance for Sandzak to be integrated into Bosnia and Herzegovina
) There is also a chance for Northern Ireland to be integrated into Ireland
{ There are also chances for Ingria and Karelia to form an independent country together or to join Finland
} There is also the chance for Guayaquil and Guayas to set a joint independent movement
' There is also the chance that the Hungarian speaking part of Southern Slovakia would join Hungaria.
€ There is also the chance for this enclave to be integrated to Indonesia or a future independent West Timor.(moderate to low)
ç There is also the chance for the Chagos Islands to be integrated to Mauritius (higher than those of indepedence)
2-INTEGRATION LIST
COUNTRY COUNTRY ST% LT% W
ANTIGUA AND BARB. CARIBBEAN UNION* 1 15 U
BARBADOS CARIBBEAN UNION* 1 15 U
DOMINICA CARIBBEAN UNION* 2 20 U
GRENADA CARIBBEAN UNION* 2 20 U
SAINT KITTS AND N.CARIBBEAN UNION* 1 10 U
SAINT VICENT /GR. CARIBBEAN UNION* 2 25 U
SAINT LUCIA CARIBBEAN UNION* 2 25 U
TRINIDAD AND TOB. CARIBBEAN UNION* 1 10 U
JAMAICA CARIBBEAN UNION* 1 5 U
BELIZE GUATEMALA 1 2 A
ERITREA ETHIOPIA 1 2 A
SOMALIA 8 COUNTRIES 5 25 S
COMOROS G.CO.+ANJOUAN+MOHELI 10 30 S
GAMBIA SENEGAL 1 20 U
LESOTHO SOUTH AFRICA 1 20 A
ESWATINI SOUTH AFRICA 1 5 A
BRUNEI MALAYSIA 1 20 + A
SINGAPORE MALAYSIA 1 1 A
BHUTAN INDIA 1 10 A
MALDIVES INDIA 1 15 + A
NORTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA 1 75 - U
TAIWAN CHINA 2 50 A
TUVALU KIRIBATI 1 40 + A
MICRONESIA YAP+TRUK+HALL 1 15 S
KIRIBATI GILBERT+PHOENIX+EAST. 1 10 + S
NAURU AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND 1 10 A
SPAIN ALL PROVINCES 1 2 S
ANDORRA SPAIN** 1 25 A
BELARUS RUSSIA 5 - 35 A
LIECHTENSTEIN SWITZERLAND 1 20 A
MOLDOVA ROMANIA/RUSSIA*** 2 30 A
MONACO FRANCE 2 40 A
BELGIUM FLANDERS+WALLONIA**** 5 45 + S
UNITED KINGDOM ENGLAND+SCOTLAND+WALES1 20 S
SAN MARINO ITALY 1 25 A
VATICAN CITY ITALY 1 40 A
BOSNIA HERZEGOVINASERBIA+CROATIA 1 10 S
NORTH MACEDONIA GREE./SERB./BULG/ALB 1 2 A
CYPRUS GREECE/TURKEY 2 25 A
SYRIA DRUZE+ALAWITE+KURD+SUNNI 25 40 + S
IRAQ SHII+KURD+SUNNI 45 + 65 + S
SAUDI ARABIA UP TO 5 COUNTRIES 2 25 S
UNITED ARAB EMIR. 7 COUNTRIES-EMIRATES 1 15 S
KAZAKHSTAN RUSSIA 2 20 A
* The Caribbean Union is a fledgling project of integration of some
caribbean countries.
** The LT% also includes the integration to Spain
or to an eventual independent Catalonia.
*** There are some chances that Moldova
might be split in two parts:
the Transdniestria region which could join Russia
and the romanian speaking Moldova which could
join Romania.
**** There are chances in the case of a split between
Flanders and Wallonia,
that the German small minority will seek an integration to Germany or follow
one of the two new countries (likely the Flanders).
Note:Belgium is also listed amongst the countries with a chance to disappear. The difference in having
a secession of Flanders from Belgium
or a split in two countries where the French speaking part (Wallonia) will have a different name is mainly
in the denomination of the latest.
Therefore the country is listed in both lists with the same chance of short and long term independence.
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