KOSOVO, WHICH SOLUTION?

Once again, after more than 15 years of the first conflicts, the Balkan region is in a crossroad.

Today this troubled part of Europe has got a very different political shape than how it was in 1990.

Slovenia is now a prosperous first world country, well integrated into European Union and the Euro zone.

Croatia has got its bid to get into the UE in the upcoming months; it has achieved quite remarkable progress in laws and economy, although has still to improve in some juridical aspects.

Macedonia had been on the verge of a full-scale civil war quite a few times, but now it is struggling to emerge from its past and build an European-oriented country.

It is still far behind the European standards.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, which suffered by far the heaviest sufferings from the worn and torn Yugoslavian civil war, has been improving with a turtle but constant pace under the NATO umbrella.

It is well divided by two entities which has never liked each other nor are minimally cooperate or work like a unique country. They are the Sprska (Serbian) Republic and the Bosnian-Croatian Federation which has indeed worked far better.

The status of the small enclave Brcko is frozen and still no solution is in sight for it.

Finally, this is recent history, Montenegro has voted to become independent from Serbia (splitting another union which never worked out ) and it is building its own state structure.

Since Serbian province Vojivoidina is no longer seeking independence and its Hungarian minority is now well treated and full integrated; now it is the turn of Kosovo's definitive status.

We must say something very important first: we cannot judge all independent movements with the same meter: every territory has lived a very different and unique history and for each one we must find a unique and best fit solution.

Having said that, it is clear that a new equilibrium can be found only by giving to Kosovo a full independence.

90% of Kosovo is populated by ethnic Albanians and it is clear they will never accept anything less than a full independence: this is a matter of fact.

So, the point is: how to draw the last border change and prevent there will be no more conflicts and this will be the last and final reshape of the Balkan area?

We must analyze all the factors in this equation which are:Kosovo,Serbia,Albania,Macedonia,Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia.

Now, there is another matter of fact: from the dreams of the Greater Serbia up to now, Serbia is by far the country which -making the greatest damage- has end up to damage itself and to loose more than all the neighbor countries (former Yugoslavian countries plus Albania) and it is not committed to being stripped -by the NATO and EU peace team-which it considers one of the pieces of its history.

Or maybe they will, if this time will get something in exchange....

Something like what?

The Sprska Republic.

And here, we must accept another matter of fact: the actual situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina cannot continue forever and this transitional status -which has being necessary to achieve peace and stop the genocide -must be transformed into a full-functional country.

Right now, the Sprska Republic is working like a de facto independent country and it is clear that Croat-Muslim Federation and Sprska Republic doesn't depend, doesn't need and doesn't love each other.

I bet that in an eventual referendum Muslims Bosnians and Croats (both from Bosnia and from Croatia) will agree to let the Sprska Republic be integrated into Serbia (with the guarantees and supervision of the EU).

We don't need to mention that near 100% of Serbians both from Serbia and from Sprska Republic will approve.

Nevertheless, for Serbia there will be a price: Kosovo.

I think there will be resistance from the ultra-orthodoxies, but at the end the Serbs will understand it has more to gain than to loose: gaining a new territory populated by Serbs and loosing a territory populated by people who has never stand with them and where so much blood of both has been spread.

And what about the other factors of the equation?

They are very important too: Croatia must sign a protocol where it accept the future status as definitive for the Balkans and forfeit any pretension to annex former disputed territories of Serbia or annex part of Bosnia.

Albania must sign a similar protocol, forfeiting any pretension to annex any part of Macedonia.

As for Kosovo -only if all parts agree- can be left a chance for a future referendum on annexation to Albania (but it would almost surely fail).

There will be some more details to solve: the Serbian minority in Kosovo and the Brcko enclave, but with the economical and political help of the EU, they would be overcome.

Balkan countries only need good willing and commitment of shut the door of conflict and sufferance forever and build a stable region altogether under friendship and collaboration, in order to become all members of European Union with a new and permanent political equilibrium.

Let's start to work on it!

Maximiliano Herrera